Setup Analysis · QQQ P618/P613

Credit Received

$0.72

$72 gross / ~$68 after fees

Max Profit

$72

If QQQ > $618 at expiry

Max Loss

$428

Width $500 − credit $72

DTE at Entry

Expiry 2026-05-15

Short Strike

$618 P

Δ -0.21

Long Strike

$613 P

Δ -0.19

Width

Defined risk

QQQ Spot at Entry

$647.36

Short strike 4.53% OTM

Entry Gate — tastylive Methodology Check

Rule	Threshold	Actual	Status
Short strike delta	16–20Δ	21Δ	BORDERLINE
IV Rank	≥ 30	55.1	PASS
Credit / width ratio	≥ 20% (prefer ≥ 33%)	14.4% ($0.72 / $5)	BELOW TARGET
Capital per position	≤ 40% of NetLiq	8.6% ($428 / $5,000)	PASS
Post-cost EV	> 0	+$10/contract @ 79% PoP	PASS
DTE band	21–45 DTE	24 DTE	PASS
Earnings inside window	None	QQQ is an ETF — no single-name earnings	PASS

Entry criteria from PRD_EQUITY_PUT_SPREADS.md §2, derived from tastylive "How To Trade Options in 2 Hours". Standing rules codified in memory/feedback_tastylive_risk_params.md.

Scenario Tree — Probability-Weighted EV

Buckets derived from tastylive 85% win-rate research at 16–20Δ short put, with managed exits (50% PT / 2× SL). Calculated via bun scripts/scenario-tree.ts --credit 0.72 --template pcs-20d-managed.

Price Ladder

Short strike sits 4.53% below spot. tastylive research: 16–20Δ shorts give ~80% probability of profit under normal market conditions. One-SD envelope computed from IVx 22% × sqrt(24/365) × spot ≈ ±$17.

Exit Plan (Mechanical)

Profit Target — 50% of credit

$0.36

Close when spread mid ≤ $0.36. Realized profit ≈ $32 after fees.

Stop Loss — 2× credit

$1.44

Close when spread mid ≥ $1.44. Realized loss ≈ $72 + fees.

Time Stop — 21 DTE

2026-04-24

Close / evaluate regardless of P&L. Gamma risk is not compensated inside 21 DTE.

Methodology & References

Document	What it covers
PRD_EQUITY_PUT_SPREADS.md	Active strategy PRD — entry criteria, exit rules, risk framework
feedback_tastylive_risk_params.md	Standing rules: 16–20Δ, IVR ≥ 30, 50% PT, 2× SL, theta/NetLiq band
feedback_trade_contingency_framework.md	Pre-trade scenario card + in-trade greek decomposition protocol
feedback_nonlinearity_options.md	Theta / gamma non-linearity mental models — why 45/21 DTE rule exists
tastylive "How To Trade Options in 2 Hours"	Original source video — 85% win-rate research, delta/IVR selection
STRATEGY_PLAYBOOK.md	Canonical strategy index — what's deployed, what's queued

Setup Analysis · QQQ P618/P613 · May 15 2026

Position Summary